Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo
Main Event · Lightweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle
Merab Dvalishvili
“The Machine”
21-5-0
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 25%
- Sub rate
- 23%
- Decision rate
- 52%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.2
- Takedown avg
- 4.2
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 6:52 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 58/100
Recent form
Henry Cejudo
“The Messenger <br> Triple C”
16-6-0
- Age
- 39
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 163 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 53%
- Sub rate
- 8%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.9
- Takedown avg
- 0.3
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 0:06 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 85/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Merab Dvalishvili
Confidence
60%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Merab Dvalishvili is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Henry Cejudo's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that reaches the judges.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Merab Dvalishvili
-230
- Market implied win %
- 69.7%
- Raina's model win %
- 60%
- Return on 100 staked
- +43
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Henry Cejudo
+211
- Market implied win %
- 32.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 40%
- Return on 100 staked
- +211
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.7 pts
Edge on Merab Dvalishvili
- Raina's model
- 60%
- Market implied
- 69.7%
- at -230
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.7 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Merab Dvalishvili higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Dvalishvili by KO/TKO+16737.5%
- Dvalishvili by decision+15040%
- Cejudo by submission+34822.3%
- Fight goes the distance+16837.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Merab Dvalishvili
60%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-230
69.7% implied · -9.7 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.