Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo
Main Event · Lightweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle
Merab Dvalishvili
“The Machine”
21-5-0
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 25%
- Tech-fall rate
- 23%
- Points-decision rate
- 52%
- Takedowns / match
- 4.2
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Ride time
- 6:52 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 58/100
Recent form
Henry Cejudo
“The Messenger <br> Triple C”
16-6-0
- Age
- 39
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 163 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 53%
- Tech-fall rate
- 8%
- Points-decision rate
- 39%
- Takedowns / match
- 0.3
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Ride time
- 0:06 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 85/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Merab Dvalishvili
Confidence
60%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Merab Dvalishvili is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Henry Cejudo's clearest path is winning the hand fight and scoring early on the edge - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Merab Dvalishvili
-230
- Market implied win %
- 69.7%
- Raina's model win %
- 60%
- Return on 100 staked
- +43
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Henry Cejudo
+211
- Market implied win %
- 32.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 40%
- Return on 100 staked
- +211
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.7 pts
Edge on Merab Dvalishvili
- Raina's model
- 60%
- Market implied
- 69.7%
- at -230
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.7 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Merab Dvalishvili higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Dvalishvili by fall+16737.5%
- Dvalishvili on points+15040%
- Cejudo by technical superiority+34822.3%
- Match goes the full two periods+16837.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Merab Dvalishvili
60%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-230
69.7% implied · -9.7 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.