Tyron Woodley vs Joaquin Buckley
Main Card · Cruiserweight · Real American Freestyle
Tyron Woodley
19-7-1
- Age
- 44
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Cruiserweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 39%
- Sub rate
- 29%
- Decision rate
- 32%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 79%
- Control time
- 1:50 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Joaquin Buckley
“New Mansa”
21-8-0
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 193 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Cruiserweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 65%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 21%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.4
- Takedown avg
- 1
- Takedown defense
- 62%
- Control time
- 6:54 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 67/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Joaquin Buckley
Confidence
75%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Joaquin Buckley is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Tyron Woodley's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 75%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Tyron Woodley
+300
- Market implied win %
- 25%
- Raina's model win %
- 25%
- Return on 100 staked
- +300
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Joaquin Buckley
-335
- Market implied win %
- 77%
- Raina's model win %
- 75%
- Return on 100 staked
- +30
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-2 pts
Edge on Joaquin Buckley
- Raina's model
- 75%
- Market implied
- 77%
- at -335
- Gap (model − market)
- -2 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Joaquin Buckley higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Buckley by KO/TKO+30224.9%
- Buckley by decision+25328.3%
- Woodley by submission+53415.8%
- Fight goes the distance-3928.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2
Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Tyron Woodley vs Joaquin Buckley
Main Card · Cruiserweight
Raina's pick
Joaquin Buckley
75%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 2
Line & edge
-335
77% implied · -2 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.