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← RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2

Tyron Woodley vs Joaquin Buckley

Main Card · Cruiserweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerU.S.

Tyron Woodley

19-7-1

Age
44
Height
175 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Cruiserweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
Pin rate
39%
Tech-fall rate
29%
Points-decision rate
32%
Takedowns / match
2.4
Takedown defense
79%
Ride time
1:50 / fight
Opponent quality
79/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerU.S.

    Joaquin Buckley

    “New Mansa”

    21-8-0

    Age
    32
    Height
    173 cm
    Reach
    193 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Cruiserweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    65%
    Tech-fall rate
    14%
    Points-decision rate
    21%
    Takedowns / match
    1
    Takedown defense
    62%
    Ride time
    6:54 / fight
    Opponent quality
    67/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Joaquin Buckley

      Confidence

      75%

      Predicted method

      Technical superiority

      Predicted period

      Period 2

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingJoaquin Buckley +17
      Mat wrestlingTyron Woodley +22
      TakedownsTyron Woodley +23
      Gas tankTyron Woodley +10
      ExperienceJoaquin Buckley +14
      Mat IQTyron Woodley +4

      Why Raina made this pick

      Joaquin Buckley is the more complete hand fighter here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Tyron Woodley's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 75%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around period 2.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Tyron Woodley

      +300

      Market implied win %
      25%
      Raina's model win %
      25%
      Return on 100 staked
      +300

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Joaquin Buckley

      -335

      Market implied win %
      77%
      Raina's model win %
      75%
      Return on 100 staked
      +30

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -2 pts

      Edge on Joaquin Buckley

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      75%
      Market implied
      77%
      at -335
      Gap (model − market)
      -2 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Joaquin Buckley higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Buckley by fall+30224.9%
      • Buckley on points+25328.3%
      • Woodley by technical superiority+53415.8%
      • Match goes the full two periods-3928.1%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 12: Dvalishvili vs. Cejudo 2

      Saturday, August 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Tyron Woodley vs Joaquin Buckley

      Main Card · Cruiserweight

      Raina's pick

      Joaquin Buckley

      75%

      Method / round

      Technical superiority

      Period 2

      Line & edge

      -335

      77% implied · -2 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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