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← RAF 13: Covington vs. Muhammad

Luke Rockhold vs Joe Pyfer

Main Card · Catchweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerU.S.

Luke Rockhold

16-6-0

Age
41
Height
191 cm
Reach
196 cm
Stance
Southpaw
Weight class
Catchweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
Pin rate
21%
Tech-fall rate
45%
Points-decision rate
34%
Takedowns / match
2.7
Takedown defense
77%
Ride time
1:41 / fight
Opponent quality
55/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerU.S.

    Joe Pyfer

    “Bodybagz”

    16-3-0

    Age
    29
    Height
    185 cm
    Reach
    191 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Catchweight
    Streak
    5-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    65%
    Tech-fall rate
    9%
    Points-decision rate
    26%
    Takedowns / match
    0.3
    Takedown defense
    69%
    Ride time
    4:37 / fight
    Opponent quality
    84/100

    Recent form

    WWWWW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Luke Rockhold

      Confidence

      64%

      Predicted method

      Fall (pin)

      Predicted period

      Period 1

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingJoe Pyfer +22
      Mat wrestlingLuke Rockhold +33
      TakedownsLuke Rockhold +16
      Gas tankJoe Pyfer +17
      ExperienceJoe Pyfer +11
      Mat IQLuke Rockhold +11

      Why Raina made this pick

      Luke Rockhold is the more complete mat wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Joe Pyfer's clearest path is winning the hand fight and scoring early on the edge - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 64%.

      Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around period 1.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Luke Rockhold

      -258

      Market implied win %
      72.1%
      Raina's model win %
      64%
      Return on 100 staked
      +39

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Joe Pyfer

      +234

      Market implied win %
      29.9%
      Raina's model win %
      36%
      Return on 100 staked
      +234

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -8.1 pts

      Edge on Luke Rockhold

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      64%
      Market implied
      72.1%
      at -258
      Gap (model − market)
      -8.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Luke Rockhold higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Rockhold by fall+15239.7%
      • Rockhold on points+19134.4%
      • Pyfer by technical superiority+61713.9%
      • Match goes the full two periods-5535.5%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 13: Covington vs. Muhammad

      Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Luke Rockhold vs Joe Pyfer

      Main Card · Catchweight

      Raina's pick

      Luke Rockhold

      64%

      Method / round

      Fall (pin)

      Period 1

      Line & edge

      -258

      72.1% implied · -8.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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