Michael Holston vs Larry Wheels
Co-Main · Catchweight · Real American Freestyle
Michael Holston
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Catchweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 33%
- Tech-fall rate
- 29%
- Points-decision rate
- 38%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.2
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Ride time
- 2:45 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Larry Wheels
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Catchweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 34%
- Tech-fall rate
- 28%
- Points-decision rate
- 38%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Ride time
- 4:28 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 69/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Larry Wheels
Confidence
67%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Larry Wheels is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Michael Holston's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 67%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Michael Holston
+252
- Market implied win %
- 28.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 33%
- Return on 100 staked
- +252
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Larry Wheels
-279
- Market implied win %
- 73.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 67%
- Return on 100 staked
- +36
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.6 pts
Edge on Larry Wheels
- Raina's model
- 67%
- Market implied
- 73.6%
- at -279
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Larry Wheels higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Wheels by fall+23529.9%
- Wheels on points+21931.3%
- Holston by technical superiority+55115.4%
- Match goes the full two periods+18035.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF 13: Covington vs. Muhammad
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Michael Holston vs Larry Wheels
Co-Main · Catchweight
Raina's pick
Larry Wheels
67%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-279
73.6% implied · -6.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.