Skip to main content
CRUZ CONTROLMMA
← RAF 13: Covington vs. Muhammad

Mikey Caliendo vs Timur Bizhoev

Main Card · Welterweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerUnlisted

Mikey Caliendo

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Welterweight
Streak
Rebounding from a loss
Pin rate
39%
Tech-fall rate
22%
Points-decision rate
39%
Takedowns / match
1.3
Takedown defense
74%
Ride time
4:05 / fight
Opponent quality
88/100

Recent form

WLWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Timur Bizhoev

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Welterweight
    Streak
    Rebounding from a loss
    Pin rate
    31%
    Tech-fall rate
    24%
    Points-decision rate
    45%
    Takedowns / match
    2.9
    Takedown defense
    75%
    Ride time
    0:08 / fight
    Opponent quality
    80/100

    Recent form

    WLWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Timur Bizhoev

      Confidence

      69%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingTimur Bizhoev +21
      Mat wrestlingTimur Bizhoev +14
      TakedownsTimur Bizhoev +11
      Gas tankTimur Bizhoev +14
      ExperienceMikey Caliendo +18
      Mat IQMikey Caliendo +12

      Why Raina made this pick

      Timur Bizhoev is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Mikey Caliendo's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 69%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Mikey Caliendo

      +264

      Market implied win %
      27.5%
      Raina's model win %
      31%
      Return on 100 staked
      +264

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Timur Bizhoev

      -293

      Market implied win %
      74.6%
      Raina's model win %
      69%
      Return on 100 staked
      +34

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -5.6 pts

      Edge on Timur Bizhoev

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      69%
      Market implied
      74.6%
      at -293
      Gap (model − market)
      -5.6 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Timur Bizhoev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Bizhoev by fall+20932.4%
      • Bizhoev on points+26827.2%
      • Caliendo by technical superiority+30324.8%
      • Match goes the full two periods+6062.5%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 13: Covington vs. Muhammad

      Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Mikey Caliendo vs Timur Bizhoev

      Main Card · Welterweight

      Raina's pick

      Timur Bizhoev

      69%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -293

      74.6% implied · -5.6 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

      Auto synced

      Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.