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← RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis

Arman Tsarukyan vs Anthony Pettis

Main Event · Middleweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerGeorgia

Arman Tsarukyan

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
170 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Catchweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
Pin rate
27%
Tech-fall rate
23%
Points-decision rate
50%
Takedowns / match
2.1
Takedown defense
73%
Ride time
5:39 / fight
Opponent quality
67/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerU.S.

    Anthony Pettis

    Record unlisted

    Age
    39
    Height
    178 cm
    Reach
    5 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Middleweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    32%
    Tech-fall rate
    27%
    Points-decision rate
    41%
    Takedowns / match
    2.8
    Takedown defense
    74%
    Ride time
    2:54 / fight
    Opponent quality
    64/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Arman Tsarukyan

      Confidence

      76%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingArman Tsarukyan +18
      Mat wrestlingAnthony Pettis +11
      TakedownsArman Tsarukyan +20
      Gas tankArman Tsarukyan +19
      ExperienceAnthony Pettis +15
      Mat IQArman Tsarukyan +15

      Why Raina made this pick

      Arman Tsarukyan is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Anthony Pettis's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 76%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Arman Tsarukyan

      -342

      Market implied win %
      77.4%
      Raina's model win %
      76%
      Return on 100 staked
      +29

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Anthony Pettis

      +306

      Market implied win %
      24.6%
      Raina's model win %
      24%
      Return on 100 staked
      +306

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -1.4 pts

      Edge on Arman Tsarukyan

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      76%
      Market implied
      77.4%
      at -342
      Gap (model − market)
      -1.4 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Arman Tsarukyan higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Tsarukyan by fall+16338%
      • Tsarukyan on points+21431.8%
      • Pettis by technical superiority+45718%
      • Match goes the full two periods+2778.7%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis

      Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Arman Tsarukyan vs Anthony Pettis

      Main Event · Middleweight

      Raina's pick

      Arman Tsarukyan

      76%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -342

      77.4% implied · -1.4 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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