Chance Marsteller vs Akhmed Usmanov
Main Card · Cruiserweight · Real American Freestyle
Chance Marsteller
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Cruiserweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 36%
- Tech-fall rate
- 21%
- Points-decision rate
- 43%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.2
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Ride time
- 5:51 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Akhmed Usmanov
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Cruiserweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 29%
- Tech-fall rate
- 27%
- Points-decision rate
- 44%
- Takedowns / match
- 2.3
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Ride time
- 3:20 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 71/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Akhmed Usmanov
Confidence
71%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Akhmed Usmanov is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Chance Marsteller's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 71%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Chance Marsteller
+276
- Market implied win %
- 26.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 29%
- Return on 100 staked
- +276
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Akhmed Usmanov
-307
- Market implied win %
- 75.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 71%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-4.4 pts
Edge on Akhmed Usmanov
- Raina's model
- 71%
- Market implied
- 75.4%
- at -307
- Gap (model − market)
- -4.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Akhmed Usmanov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Usmanov by fall+24928.7%
- Usmanov on points+27626.6%
- Marsteller by technical superiority+61414%
- Match goes the full two periods+1487.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Chance Marsteller vs Akhmed Usmanov
Main Card · Cruiserweight
Raina's pick
Akhmed Usmanov
71%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-307
75.4% implied · -4.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.