Henry Cejudo vs Song Yadong
Co-Main · Lightweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle
Henry Cejudo
“The Messenger <br> Triple C”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 39
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 163 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 37%
- Tech-fall rate
- 27%
- Points-decision rate
- 36%
- Takedowns / match
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Ride time
- 0:06 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 85/100
Recent form
Song Yadong
23-9-1
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 175 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 1-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 43%
- Tech-fall rate
- 9%
- Points-decision rate
- 48%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.3
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Ride time
- 2:10 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 88/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Deiveson Figueiredo - Submission (Guillotine Choke)UFC Fight Night 277 · 2026-05-30
- Lvs Sean O'Malley - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 324 · 2026-01-24
- Wvs Henry Cejudo - Technical Decision (Unanimous)UFC Fight Night 252 · 2025-02-22
- Lvs Petr Yan - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 299 · 2024-03-09
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Henry Cejudo
Confidence
58%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Henry Cejudo is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Song Yadong's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 58%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Henry Cejudo
-216
- Market implied win %
- 68.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 58%
- Return on 100 staked
- +46
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Song Yadong
+199
- Market implied win %
- 33.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 42%
- Return on 100 staked
- +199
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.4 pts
Edge on Henry Cejudo
- Raina's model
- 58%
- Market implied
- 68.4%
- at -216
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Henry Cejudo higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Cejudo by fall+23929.5%
- Cejudo on points+20832.5%
- Yadong by technical superiority+27426.7%
- Match goes the full two periods+18035.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Henry Cejudo vs Song Yadong
Co-Main · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Henry Cejudo
58%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-216
68.4% implied · -10.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.