Michael Caliendo vs Cesar Alvan
Main Card · Welterweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle
Michael Caliendo
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 32%
- Tech-fall rate
- 27%
- Points-decision rate
- 41%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.2
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Ride time
- 4:20 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Cesar Alvan
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 37%
- Tech-fall rate
- 22%
- Points-decision rate
- 41%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 80%
- Ride time
- 2:47 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Cesar Alvan
Confidence
73%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Cesar Alvan is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Michael Caliendo's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 73%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Michael Caliendo
+288
- Market implied win %
- 25.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 27%
- Return on 100 staked
- +288
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Cesar Alvan
-321
- Market implied win %
- 76.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 73%
- Return on 100 staked
- +31
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.2 pts
Edge on Cesar Alvan
- Raina's model
- 73%
- Market implied
- 76.2%
- at -321
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.2 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Cesar Alvan higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Alvan by fall+17136.9%
- Alvan on points+22231.1%
- Caliendo by technical superiority+53915.6%
- Match goes the full two periods-3928.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Michael Caliendo vs Cesar Alvan
Main Card · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Cesar Alvan
73%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-321
76.2% implied · -3.2 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.