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← RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Clay Guida

Main Card · Lightweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerU.S.

Raul Rosas Jr.

“El Niño Problema (The Problem Child)”

Record unlisted

Age
22
Height
175 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Southpaw
Weight class
Lightweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
Pin rate
32%
Tech-fall rate
24%
Points-decision rate
44%
Takedowns / match
1.9
Takedown defense
66%
Ride time
7:29 / fight
Opponent quality
71/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnited States

    Clay Guida

    “The Carpenter”

    Record unlisted

    Age
    44
    Height
    170 cm
    Reach
    178 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Lightweight
    Streak
    4-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    39%
    Tech-fall rate
    18%
    Points-decision rate
    43%
    Takedowns / match
    2.6
    Takedown defense
    70%
    Ride time
    1:35 / fight
    Opponent quality
    65/100

    Recent form

    WWWWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Clay Guida

      Confidence

      55%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingRaul Rosas Jr. +13
      Mat wrestlingRaul Rosas Jr. +18
      TakedownsRaul Rosas Jr. +13
      Gas tankRaul Rosas Jr. +18
      ExperienceRaul Rosas Jr. +10
      Mat IQClay Guida +20

      Why Raina made this pick

      Clay Guida is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Raul Rosas Jr.'s clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 55%.

      Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Raul Rosas Jr.

      +181

      Market implied win %
      35.6%
      Raina's model win %
      45%
      Return on 100 staked
      +181

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Clay Guida

      -195

      Market implied win %
      66.1%
      Raina's model win %
      55%
      Return on 100 staked
      +51

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -11.1 pts

      Edge on Clay Guida

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      55%
      Market implied
      66.1%
      at -195
      Gap (model − market)
      -11.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Clay Guida higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Guida by fall+30924.4%
      • Guida on points+12045.5%
      • Jr. by technical superiority+60214.2%
      • Match goes the full two periods-1513%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis

      Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Raul Rosas Jr. vs Clay Guida

      Main Card · Lightweight

      Raina's pick

      Clay Guida

      55%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -195

      66.1% implied · -11.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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