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← RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis

Real Woods vs Sebastian Rivera

Main Card · Featherweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerUnlisted

Real Woods

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Featherweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
Pin rate
38%
Tech-fall rate
24%
Points-decision rate
38%
Takedowns / match
2.6
Takedown defense
79%
Ride time
6:10 / fight
Opponent quality
86/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Sebastian Rivera

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Featherweight
    Streak
    4-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    27%
    Tech-fall rate
    20%
    Points-decision rate
    53%
    Takedowns / match
    1.2
    Takedown defense
    68%
    Ride time
    5:59 / fight
    Opponent quality
    63/100

    Recent form

    WWWWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Real Woods

      Confidence

      60%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingSebastian Rivera +12
      Mat wrestlingSebastian Rivera +11
      TakedownsReal Woods +20
      Gas tankSebastian Rivera +13
      ExperienceSebastian Rivera +21
      Mat IQReal Woods +21

      Why Raina made this pick

      Real Woods is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Sebastian Rivera's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Real Woods

      -230

      Market implied win %
      69.7%
      Raina's model win %
      60%
      Return on 100 staked
      +43

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Sebastian Rivera

      +211

      Market implied win %
      32.2%
      Raina's model win %
      40%
      Return on 100 staked
      +211

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -9.7 pts

      Edge on Real Woods

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      60%
      Market implied
      69.7%
      at -230
      Gap (model − market)
      -9.7 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Real Woods higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Woods by fall+26027.8%
      • Woods on points+19134.4%
      • Rivera by technical superiority+62013.9%
      • Match goes the full two periods+2580%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF 15: Tsarukyan vs. Pettis

      Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Real Woods vs Sebastian Rivera

      Main Card · Featherweight

      Raina's pick

      Real Woods

      60%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -230

      69.7% implied · -9.7 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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