Abdulrashid Sadulaev vs Dauren Kurugliev
Main Card · Light Heavyweight · Real American Freestyle
Abdulrashid Sadulaev
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- Pin rate
- 39%
- Tech-fall rate
- 25%
- Points-decision rate
- 36%
- Takedowns / match
- 2.6
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Ride time
- 0:11 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 56/100
Recent form
Dauren Kurugliev
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 38%
- Tech-fall rate
- 23%
- Points-decision rate
- 39%
- Takedowns / match
- 2.6
- Takedown defense
- 64%
- Ride time
- 1:45 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 55/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Dauren Kurugliev
Confidence
53%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Dauren Kurugliev is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Abdulrashid Sadulaev's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 53%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Abdulrashid Sadulaev
+169
- Market implied win %
- 37.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 47%
- Return on 100 staked
- +169
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Dauren Kurugliev
-181
- Market implied win %
- 64.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 53%
- Return on 100 staked
- +55
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.4 pts
Edge on Dauren Kurugliev
- Raina's model
- 53%
- Market implied
- 64.4%
- at -181
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Dauren Kurugliev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Kurugliev by fall+21132.2%
- Kurugliev on points+17336.6%
- Sadulaev by technical superiority+49016.9%
- Match goes the full two periods-3928.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Real American Freestyle · RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Abdulrashid Sadulaev vs Dauren Kurugliev
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Dauren Kurugliev
53%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-181
64.4% implied · -11.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.