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← RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington

Ali AlQaisi vs Hamza Kooheji

Main Card · Lightweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerUnlisted

Ali AlQaisi

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Lightweight
Streak
Rebounding from a loss
Pin rate
29%
Tech-fall rate
28%
Points-decision rate
43%
Takedowns / match
2.5
Takedown defense
72%
Ride time
4:45 / fight
Opponent quality
62/100

Recent form

WLWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Hamza Kooheji

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Lightweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    34%
    Tech-fall rate
    22%
    Points-decision rate
    44%
    Takedowns / match
    2.6
    Takedown defense
    69%
    Ride time
    0:36 / fight
    Opponent quality
    58/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Ali AlQaisi

      Confidence

      62%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingAli AlQaisi +16
      Mat wrestlingHamza Kooheji +17
      TakedownsHamza Kooheji +22
      Gas tankHamza Kooheji +17
      ExperienceAli AlQaisi +19
      Mat IQAli AlQaisi +17

      Why Raina made this pick

      Ali AlQaisi is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Hamza Kooheji's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Ali AlQaisi

      -244

      Market implied win %
      70.9%
      Raina's model win %
      62%
      Return on 100 staked
      +41

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Hamza Kooheji

      +222

      Market implied win %
      31.1%
      Raina's model win %
      38%
      Return on 100 staked
      +222

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -8.9 pts

      Edge on Ali AlQaisi

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      62%
      Market implied
      70.9%
      at -244
      Gap (model − market)
      -8.9 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Ali AlQaisi higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • AlQaisi by fall+30624.6%
      • AlQaisi on points+13842%
      • Kooheji by technical superiority+55515.3%
      • Match goes the full two periods-14759.5%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington

      Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Ali AlQaisi vs Hamza Kooheji

      Main Card · Lightweight

      Raina's pick

      Ali AlQaisi

      62%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -244

      70.9% implied · -8.9 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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