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← RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington

Khamzat Chimaev vs Colby Covington

Main Event · Cruiserweight · World Title · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerRussia

Khamzat Chimaev

“Borz”

Record unlisted

Age
32
Height
188 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Cruiserweight
Streak
2-fight win streak
Pin rate
32%
Tech-fall rate
24%
Points-decision rate
44%
Takedowns / match
1.5
Takedown defense
67%
Ride time
1:40 / fight
Opponent quality
69/100

Recent form

WWLWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerU.S.

    Colby Covington

    Record unlisted

    Age
    38
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Southpaw
    Weight class
    Cruiserweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    31%
    Tech-fall rate
    21%
    Points-decision rate
    48%
    Takedowns / match
    1.5
    Takedown defense
    76%
    Ride time
    4:58 / fight
    Opponent quality
    87/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Colby Covington

      Confidence

      65%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingColby Covington +15
      Mat wrestlingKhamzat Chimaev +14
      TakedownsColby Covington +11
      Gas tankKhamzat Chimaev +20
      ExperienceKhamzat Chimaev +12
      Mat IQColby Covington +12

      Why Raina made this pick

      Colby Covington is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Khamzat Chimaev's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 65%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Khamzat Chimaev

      +240

      Market implied win %
      29.4%
      Raina's model win %
      35%
      Return on 100 staked
      +240

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Colby Covington

      -265

      Market implied win %
      72.6%
      Raina's model win %
      65%
      Return on 100 staked
      +38

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -7.6 pts

      Edge on Colby Covington

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      65%
      Market implied
      72.6%
      at -265
      Gap (model − market)
      -7.6 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Colby Covington higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Covington by fall+29725.2%
      • Covington on points+25228.4%
      • Chimaev by technical superiority+34422.5%
      • Match goes the full two periods+2878.1%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington

      Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Khamzat Chimaev vs Colby Covington

      Main Event · Cruiserweight

      Raina's pick

      Colby Covington

      65%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -265

      72.6% implied · -7.6 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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