Merab Dvalishvili vs Marlon Moraes
Main Card · Catchweight · Real American Freestyle
Merab Dvalishvili
“The Machine”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Catchweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 33%
- Tech-fall rate
- 30%
- Points-decision rate
- 37%
- Takedowns / match
- 2.3
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Ride time
- 6:52 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 58/100
Recent form
Marlon Moraes
“Magic”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 168 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Catchweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 30%
- Tech-fall rate
- 22%
- Points-decision rate
- 48%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.6
- Takedown defense
- 82%
- Ride time
- 2:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 82/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Merab Dvalishvili
Confidence
70%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Merab Dvalishvili is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Marlon Moraes's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 70%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Merab Dvalishvili
-300
- Market implied win %
- 75%
- Raina's model win %
- 70%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Marlon Moraes
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 30%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5 pts
Edge on Merab Dvalishvili
- Raina's model
- 70%
- Market implied
- 75%
- at -300
- Gap (model − market)
- -5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Merab Dvalishvili higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Dvalishvili by fall+15239.7%
- Dvalishvili on points+13243.1%
- Moraes by technical superiority+33023.3%
- Match goes the full two periods+7955.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Real American Freestyle · RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Merab Dvalishvili vs Marlon Moraes
Main Card · Catchweight
Raina's pick
Merab Dvalishvili
70%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-300
75% implied · -5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.