Umar Nurmagomedov vs Urijah Faber
Main Card · Lightweight · Real American Freestyle
Umar Nurmagomedov
20-1-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 25%
- Tech-fall rate
- 30%
- Points-decision rate
- 45%
- Takedowns / match
- 3.6
- Takedown defense
- 82%
- Ride time
- 5:40 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 92/100
Recent form
Recent fight history
- Wvs Deiveson Figueiredo - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 324 · 2026-01-24
- Wvs Mario Bautista - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 321 · 2025-10-25
- Lvs Merab Dvalishvili - Decision (Unanimous)UFC 311 · 2025-01-18
- Wvs Cory Sandhagen - Decision (Unanimous)UFC on ABC 7 · 2024-08-03
Urijah Faber
“The California Kid”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 47
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- Pin rate
- 35%
- Tech-fall rate
- 30%
- Points-decision rate
- 35%
- Takedowns / match
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Ride time
- 7:56 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 59/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Umar Nurmagomedov
Confidence
64%
Predicted method
Decision on points
Predicted period
Full time (2 periods)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Umar Nurmagomedov is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.
Urijah Faber's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 64%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Umar Nurmagomedov
-258
- Market implied win %
- 72.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 64%
- Return on 100 staked
- +39
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Urijah Faber
+234
- Market implied win %
- 29.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 36%
- Return on 100 staked
- +234
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.1 pts
Edge on Umar Nurmagomedov
- Raina's model
- 64%
- Market implied
- 72.1%
- at -258
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Umar Nurmagomedov higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
periods total
Over/Under 1.5 periods
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Nurmagomedov by fall+21032.3%
- Nurmagomedov on points+24728.8%
- Faber by technical superiority+30724.6%
- Match goes the full two periods+8853.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
Real American Freestyle · RAF Abu Dhabi: Chimaev vs. Covington
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Urijah Faber
Main Card · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Umar Nurmagomedov
64%
Method / round
Decision on points
Full time (2 periods)
Line & edge
-258
72.1% implied · -8.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.