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← RAF Moscow: Chimaev vs. Woodley

Jason Nolf vs Ismail Khaniev

Main Card · Catchweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerUnlisted

Jason Nolf

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Middleweight
Streak
3-fight win streak
Pin rate
32%
Tech-fall rate
30%
Points-decision rate
38%
Takedowns / match
1.3
Takedown defense
82%
Ride time
6:41 / fight
Opponent quality
68/100

Recent form

WWWLW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerUnlisted

    Ismail Khaniev

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Catchweight
    Streak
    2-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    29%
    Tech-fall rate
    27%
    Points-decision rate
    44%
    Takedowns / match
    2.4
    Takedown defense
    69%
    Ride time
    7:15 / fight
    Opponent quality
    69/100

    Recent form

    WWLWL

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Jason Nolf

      Confidence

      72%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingIsmail Khaniev +12
      Mat wrestlingIsmail Khaniev +11
      TakedownsJason Nolf +14
      Gas tankIsmail Khaniev +13
      ExperienceJason Nolf +15
      Mat IQIsmail Khaniev +15

      Why Raina made this pick

      Jason Nolf is the more complete all-round wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Ismail Khaniev's clearest path is chaining takedowns and building points from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 72%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Jason Nolf

      -314

      Market implied win %
      75.8%
      Raina's model win %
      72%
      Return on 100 staked
      +32

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Ismail Khaniev

      +282

      Market implied win %
      26.2%
      Raina's model win %
      28%
      Return on 100 staked
      +282

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -3.8 pts

      Edge on Jason Nolf

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      72%
      Market implied
      75.8%
      at -314
      Gap (model − market)
      -3.8 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Jason Nolf higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      -125

      55.6% implied

      Under

      +105

      48.8% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Nolf by fall+23829.6%
      • Nolf on points+14241.3%
      • Khaniev by technical superiority+57414.8%
      • Match goes the full two periods+12045.5%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF Moscow: Chimaev vs. Woodley

      Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Jason Nolf vs Ismail Khaniev

      Main Card · Catchweight

      Raina's pick

      Jason Nolf

      72%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -314

      75.8% implied · -3.8 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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