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← RAF Moscow: Chimaev vs. Woodley

Khamzat Chimaev vs Tyron Woodley

Main Event · Catchweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerRussia

Khamzat Chimaev

“Borz”

15-1-0

Age
32
Height
188 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Catchweight
Streak
2-fight win streak
Pin rate
20%
Tech-fall rate
41%
Points-decision rate
39%
Takedowns / match
3.4
Takedown defense
65%
Ride time
1:40 / fight
Opponent quality
69/100

Recent form

WWLWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerU.S.

    Tyron Woodley

    19-7-1

    Age
    44
    Height
    175 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Cruiserweight
    Streak
    5-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    39%
    Tech-fall rate
    29%
    Points-decision rate
    32%
    Takedowns / match
    2.4
    Takedown defense
    79%
    Ride time
    1:50 / fight
    Opponent quality
    79/100

    Recent form

    WWWWW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Khamzat Chimaev

      Confidence

      78%

      Predicted method

      Technical superiority

      Predicted period

      Period 1

      Upset potential

      Low

      Risk level

      Low

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingTyron Woodley +23
      Mat wrestlingKhamzat Chimaev +22
      TakedownsKhamzat Chimaev +23
      Gas tankTyron Woodley +28
      ExperienceKhamzat Chimaev +14
      Mat IQTyron Woodley +10

      Why Raina made this pick

      Chimaev wrestles forward from the whistle: high-percentage body locks and a relentless pace are exactly what wins a two-period freestyle match on points.

      Woodley's best mat asset is his defensive base, but he has not competed at this tempo in years and gives up early exposure points on the edge.

      Confidence sits at 78% because freestyle scoring rewards volume of attacks, and Chimaev's takedown entries are the highest-volume tool on the mat.

      Confidence breakdown

      How Raina's 78% read is built. Each bar is how strongly a factor pushed the call, not a win probability - none of it guarantees an outcome. Vote on each factor after the result and the tally builds a record of which reads hold up.

      Takedown ability
      leans Khamzat Chimaev · 82/100
      Body locks and reactive doubles give Chimaev the higher-volume scoring entries.
      No votes yet
      Defensive wrestling
      leans Tyron Woodley · 46/100
      Woodley's base and hip strength are his best tool, and can stall a period if he stays square.
      No votes yet
      Pace
      leans Khamzat Chimaev · 74/100
      Two short periods reward relentless attacking; Chimaev's tempo has not been matched on the mat.
      No votes yet
      Mat return / edge control
      leans Khamzat Chimaev · 63/100
      Points leak on the edge, and Chimaev is the more comfortable of the two pushing out.
      No votes yet

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Khamzat Chimaev

      -356

      Market implied win %
      78.1%
      Raina's model win %
      78%
      Return on 100 staked
      +28

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Tyron Woodley

      +318

      Market implied win %
      23.9%
      Raina's model win %
      22%
      Return on 100 staked
      +318

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      In line with market

      -0.1 pts

      Edge on Khamzat Chimaev

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      78%
      Market implied
      78.1%
      at -356
      Gap (model − market)
      -0.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Khamzat Chimaev higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Chimaev by fall+19633.8%
      • Chimaev on points+24029.4%
      • Woodley by technical superiority+43718.6%
      • Match goes the full two periods+5763.7%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF Moscow: Chimaev vs. Woodley

      Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Khamzat Chimaev vs Tyron Woodley

      Main Event · Catchweight

      Raina's pick

      Khamzat Chimaev

      78%

      Method / round

      Technical superiority

      Period 1

      Line & edge

      -356

      78.1% implied · -0.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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