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← RAF Moscow: Chimaev vs. Woodley

Sharabutdin Magomedov vs Alexander Shlemenko

Main Card · Catchweight · Real American Freestyle

Red cornerRussia

Sharabutdin Magomedov

“Shara Bullet”

17-1-0

Age
32
Height
188 cm
Reach
185 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Catchweight
Streak
5-fight win streak
Pin rate
66%
Tech-fall rate
11%
Points-decision rate
23%
Takedowns / match
1
Takedown defense
64%
Ride time
0:09 / fight
Opponent quality
71/100

Recent form

WWWWW

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerSoviet Union

    Alexander Shlemenko

    “Storm”

    69-17-1

    Age
    42
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Catchweight
    Streak
    3-fight win streak
    Pin rate
    63%
    Tech-fall rate
    7%
    Points-decision rate
    30%
    Takedowns / match
    0.3
    Takedown defense
    64%
    Ride time
    2:53 / fight
    Opponent quality
    69/100

    Recent form

    WWWLW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Alexander Shlemenko

      Confidence

      53%

      Predicted method

      Decision on points

      Predicted period

      Full time (2 periods)

      Upset potential

      High

      Risk level

      High

      Advantage model

      Hand fightingSharabutdin Magomedov +11
      Mat wrestlingAlexander Shlemenko +10
      TakedownsSharabutdin Magomedov +21
      Gas tankAlexander Shlemenko +10
      ExperienceAlexander Shlemenko +16
      Mat IQAlexander Shlemenko +16

      Why Raina made this pick

      Alexander Shlemenko is the more complete hand fighter here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 2 periods.

      Sharabutdin Magomedov's clearest path is winning the hand fight and scoring early on the edge - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 53%.

      Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a match that goes to the officials.

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Sharabutdin Magomedov

      +169

      Market implied win %
      37.2%
      Raina's model win %
      47%
      Return on 100 staked
      +169

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Alexander Shlemenko

      -181

      Market implied win %
      64.4%
      Raina's model win %
      53%
      Return on 100 staked
      +55

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -11.4 pts

      Edge on Alexander Shlemenko

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      53%
      Market implied
      64.4%
      at -181
      Gap (model − market)
      -11.4 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Alexander Shlemenko higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      periods total

      Over/Under 1.5 periods

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Shlemenko by fall+27426.7%
      • Shlemenko on points+25328.3%
      • Magomedov by technical superiority+30924.4%
      • Match goes the full two periods-2117.4%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      Real American Freestyle · RAF Moscow: Chimaev vs. Woodley

      Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Sharabutdin Magomedov vs Alexander Shlemenko

      Main Card · Catchweight

      Raina's pick

      Alexander Shlemenko

      53%

      Method / round

      Decision on points

      Full time (2 periods)

      Line & edge

      -181

      64.4% implied · -11.4 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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