Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
Co-Main · Heavyweight · UFC
Serghei Spivac
“The Polar Bear”
18-6-0
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 196 cm
- Reach
- 198 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.1
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 3.4
- Takedown defense
- 88%
- Control time
- 1:15 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 65/100
Recent form
Vitor Petrino
14-2-0
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 190 cm
- Reach
- 196 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 20%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 58%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.3
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 3.3
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 0:21 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 57/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Vitor Petrino
Confidence
57%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Vitor Petrino is the more complete wrestler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Serghei Spivac's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 57%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Serghei Spivac
+193
- Market implied win %
- 34.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 43%
- Return on 100 staked
- +193
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Vitor Petrino
-209
- Market implied win %
- 67.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 57%
- Return on 100 staked
- +48
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.6 pts
Edge on Vitor Petrino
- Raina's model
- 57%
- Market implied
- 67.6%
- at -209
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Vitor Petrino higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Petrino by KO/TKO+21032.3%
- Petrino by decision+17736.1%
- Spivac by submission+32623.5%
- Fight goes the distance-6439%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
Co-Main · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Vitor Petrino
57%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-209
67.6% implied · -10.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.