Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas
Prelims · Flyweight · UFC
Rei Tsuruya
11-1-0
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 168 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 37%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 42%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 2.6
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 0:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 88/100
Recent form
Kevin Borjas
11-5-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 165 cm
- Reach
- 170 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 65%
- Sub rate
- 11%
- Decision rate
- 24%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.1
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 1.1
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 2:16 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 63/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Rei Tsuruya
Confidence
68%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Rei Tsuruya is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Kevin Borjas's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 68%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Rei Tsuruya
-286
- Market implied win %
- 74.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 68%
- Return on 100 staked
- +35
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Kevin Borjas
+258
- Market implied win %
- 27.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 32%
- Return on 100 staked
- +258
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.1 pts
Edge on Rei Tsuruya
- Raina's model
- 68%
- Market implied
- 74.1%
- at -286
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Rei Tsuruya higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Tsuruya by KO/TKO+13941.8%
- Tsuruya by decision+25827.9%
- Borjas by submission+59414.4%
- Fight goes the distance+2083.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song
Saturday, August 29, 2026 · 10:00 AM UTC
Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas
Prelims · Flyweight
Raina's pick
Rei Tsuruya
68%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-286
74.1% implied · -6.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.