Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Jalin Turner
“The Tarantula”
15-9-0
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 198 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 52%
- Sub rate
- 11%
- Decision rate
- 37%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6.2
- Takedown avg
- 1.1
- Takedown defense
- 72%
- Control time
- 5:46 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Kauê Fernandes
11-2-0
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 185 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 69%
- Control time
- 5:51 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Jalin Turner
Confidence
54%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 2
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Jalin Turner is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Kauê Fernandes's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 54%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 2.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Jalin Turner
-188
- Market implied win %
- 65.3%
- Raina's model win %
- 54%
- Return on 100 staked
- +53
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Kauê Fernandes
+175
- Market implied win %
- 36.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 46%
- Return on 100 staked
- +175
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.3 pts
Edge on Jalin Turner
- Raina's model
- 54%
- Market implied
- 65.3%
- at -188
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.3 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Jalin Turner higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
Rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Turner by KO/TKO+13842%
- Turner by decision+24529%
- Fernandes by submission+32023.8%
- Fight goes the distance+6759.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Jalin Turner
54%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 2
Line & edge
-188
65.3% implied · -11.3 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.