Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski
Main Card · Light Heavyweight · UFC
Alonzo Menifield
“Atomic”
18-6-1
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 193 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 62%
- Sub rate
- 10%
- Decision rate
- 28%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.8
- Strike accuracy
- 54%
- Takedown avg
- 0.5
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 6:54 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 86/100
Recent form
Iwo Baraniewski
“Rudy”
9-0-0
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 185 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 64%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 22%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.3
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 0.4
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 1:08 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 59/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Alonzo Menifield
Confidence
70%
Predicted method
TKO / KO
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Alonzo Menifield is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Iwo Baraniewski's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 70%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Alonzo Menifield
-300
- Market implied win %
- 75%
- Raina's model win %
- 70%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Iwo Baraniewski
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 30%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5 pts
Edge on Alonzo Menifield
- Raina's model
- 70%
- Market implied
- 75%
- at -300
- Gap (model − market)
- -5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Alonzo Menifield higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Menifield by KO/TKO+26927.1%
- Menifield by decision+15339.5%
- Baraniewski by submission+48917%
- Fight goes the distance-14058.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Alonzo Menifield
70%
Method / round
TKO / KO
Round 3
Line & edge
-300
75% implied · -5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.