Arman Tsarukyan vs Maurício Ruffy
Co-Main · Lightweight · UFC
Arman Tsarukyan
23-3-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 170 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 27%
- Sub rate
- 23%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 45%
- Takedown avg
- 2.1
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 5:39 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 67/100
Recent form
Maurício Ruffy
14-2-0
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 191 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 64%
- Sub rate
- 10%
- Decision rate
- 26%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 0.5
- Takedown defense
- 60%
- Control time
- 5:08 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Maurício Ruffy
Confidence
57%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Maurício Ruffy is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Arman Tsarukyan's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 57%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Arman Tsarukyan
+193
- Market implied win %
- 34.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 43%
- Return on 100 staked
- +193
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Maurício Ruffy
-209
- Market implied win %
- 67.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 57%
- Return on 100 staked
- +48
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.6 pts
Edge on Maurício Ruffy
- Raina's model
- 57%
- Market implied
- 67.6%
- at -209
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Maurício Ruffy higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Ruffy by KO/TKO+24628.9%
- Ruffy by decision+26427.5%
- Tsarukyan by submission+47317.5%
- Fight goes the distance-11653.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Arman Tsarukyan vs Maurício Ruffy
Co-Main · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Maurício Ruffy
57%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-209
67.6% implied · -10.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.