Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain
Prelims · Bantamweight · UFC
Marlon Vera
23-12-1
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 5 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 13%
- Sub rate
- 49%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.1
- Strike accuracy
- 41%
- Takedown avg
- 4.1
- Takedown defense
- 69%
- Control time
- 3:59 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Charles Jourdain
“Air”
18-8-1
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 175 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 14%
- Sub rate
- 53%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.4
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2.7
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 2:46 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Marlon Vera
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Marlon Vera is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Charles Jourdain's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Marlon Vera
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Charles Jourdain
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Marlon Vera
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Marlon Vera higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Vera by KO/TKO+25728%
- Vera by decision+24728.8%
- Jourdain by submission+26527.4%
- Fight goes the distance-10551.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain
Prelims · Bantamweight
Raina's pick
Marlon Vera
62%
Method / round
Submission
Round 3
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.