Donte Johnson vs César Almeida
Prelims · Middleweight · UFC
Donte Johnson
8-0-0
- Age
- 28
- Height
- 188 cm
- Reach
- 193 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 20%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 56%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.2
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 4.3
- Takedown defense
- 86%
- Control time
- 1:22 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 54/100
Recent form
César Almeida
“Cesinha”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 185 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Middleweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 38%
- Sub rate
- 23%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 49%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 5:20 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 66/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Donte Johnson
Confidence
74%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Donte Johnson is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
César Almeida's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 74%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Donte Johnson
-328
- Market implied win %
- 76.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 74%
- Return on 100 staked
- +30
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
César Almeida
+294
- Market implied win %
- 25.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 26%
- Return on 100 staked
- +294
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-2.6 pts
Edge on Donte Johnson
- Raina's model
- 74%
- Market implied
- 76.6%
- at -328
- Gap (model − market)
- -2.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Donte Johnson higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Johnson by KO/TKO+28126.2%
- Johnson by decision+26327.5%
- Almeida by submission+60514.2%
- Fight goes the distance-10851.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Donte Johnson vs César Almeida
Prelims · Middleweight
Raina's pick
Donte Johnson
74%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-328
76.6% implied · -2.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.