Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Drew Dober
Record unlisted
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 173 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 34%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 2.6
- Takedown defense
- 82%
- Control time
- 4:58 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 69/100
Recent form
Chris Duncan
“The Problem”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 30%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 4:41 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Drew Dober
Confidence
68%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Drew Dober is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Chris Duncan's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 68%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Drew Dober
-286
- Market implied win %
- 74.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 68%
- Return on 100 staked
- +35
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Chris Duncan
+258
- Market implied win %
- 27.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 32%
- Return on 100 staked
- +258
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.1 pts
Edge on Drew Dober
- Raina's model
- 68%
- Market implied
- 74.1%
- at -286
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Drew Dober higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Dober by KO/TKO+30824.5%
- Dober by decision+22830.5%
- Duncan by submission+33622.9%
- Fight goes the distance+3673.5%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Drew Dober
68%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-286
74.1% implied · -6.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.