Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Evan Elder
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.5
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2.9
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 0:57 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 68/100
Recent form
Samuel Sanches
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 29%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.9
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 2:10 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 86/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Evan Elder
Confidence
58%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Evan Elder is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Samuel Sanches's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 58%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Evan Elder
-216
- Market implied win %
- 68.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 58%
- Return on 100 staked
- +46
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Samuel Sanches
+199
- Market implied win %
- 33.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 42%
- Return on 100 staked
- +199
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.4 pts
Edge on Evan Elder
- Raina's model
- 58%
- Market implied
- 68.4%
- at -216
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Evan Elder higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Elder by KO/TKO+27826.5%
- Elder by decision+24229.2%
- Sanches by submission+34122.7%
- Fight goes the distance-4832.4%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Evan Elder
58%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-216
68.4% implied · -10.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.