Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Jared Gordon
“Flash”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 38
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 173 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 7:27 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 63/100
Recent form
Melquizael Costa
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 27%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 49%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 3:18 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Jared Gordon
Confidence
62%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Jared Gordon is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Melquizael Costa's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 62%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Jared Gordon
-244
- Market implied win %
- 70.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 62%
- Return on 100 staked
- +41
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Melquizael Costa
+222
- Market implied win %
- 31.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 38%
- Return on 100 staked
- +222
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.9 pts
Edge on Jared Gordon
- Raina's model
- 62%
- Market implied
- 70.9%
- at -244
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Jared Gordon higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Gordon by KO/TKO+26827.2%
- Gordon by decision+17136.9%
- Costa by submission+46217.8%
- Fight goes the distance-14559.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Jared Gordon
62%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-244
70.9% implied · -8.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.