Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
Prelims · Welterweight · UFC
Stephen Thompson
Record unlisted
- Age
- 43
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 191 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 37%
- Sub rate
- 19%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.7
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 5:09 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 72/100
Recent form
Charles Radtke
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.4
- Takedown defense
- 70%
- Control time
- 7:49 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 57/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Stephen Thompson
Confidence
76%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Stephen Thompson is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Charles Radtke's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 76%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Stephen Thompson
-342
- Market implied win %
- 77.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 76%
- Return on 100 staked
- +29
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Charles Radtke
+306
- Market implied win %
- 24.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 24%
- Return on 100 staked
- +306
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-1.4 pts
Edge on Stephen Thompson
- Raina's model
- 76%
- Market implied
- 77.4%
- at -342
- Gap (model − market)
- -1.4 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Stephen Thompson higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Thompson by KO/TKO+20432.9%
- Thompson by decision+23130.2%
- Radtke by submission+43518.7%
- Fight goes the distance+8254.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
Prelims · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Stephen Thompson
76%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-342
77.4% implied · -1.4 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.