Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes
Main Event · Lightweight · World Title · UFC
Charles Oliveira
Record unlisted
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 188 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 29%
- Decision rate
- 43%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 2
- Takedown defense
- 65%
- Control time
- 1:16 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Diego Lopes
Record unlisted
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 184 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 19%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.3
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 5:15 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 85/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Diego Lopes
Confidence
79%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Diego Lopes is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Charles Oliveira's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 79%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Charles Oliveira
+324
- Market implied win %
- 23.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 21%
- Return on 100 staked
- +324
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Diego Lopes
-363
- Market implied win %
- 78.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 79%
- Return on 100 staked
- +28
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
+0.6 pts
Edge on Diego Lopes
- Raina's model
- 79%
- Market implied
- 78.4%
- at -363
- Gap (model − market)
- +0.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Diego Lopes higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Lopes by KO/TKO+17536.4%
- Lopes by decision+14740.5%
- Oliveira by submission+34122.7%
- Fight goes the distance+17736.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Saturday, December 12, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Diego Lopes
79%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-363
78.4% implied · +0.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.