Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen
Prelims · Heavyweight · UFC
Gabriel Lorenço
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 42%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 80%
- Control time
- 4:26 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Thomas Petersen
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 26%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 0:29 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Gabriel Lorenço
Confidence
60%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Gabriel Lorenço is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Thomas Petersen's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 60%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Gabriel Lorenço
-230
- Market implied win %
- 69.7%
- Raina's model win %
- 60%
- Return on 100 staked
- +43
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Thomas Petersen
+211
- Market implied win %
- 32.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 40%
- Return on 100 staked
- +211
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-9.7 pts
Edge on Gabriel Lorenço
- Raina's model
- 60%
- Market implied
- 69.7%
- at -230
- Gap (model − market)
- -9.7 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Gabriel Lorenço higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Lorenço by KO/TKO+13143.3%
- Lorenço by decision+25628.1%
- Petersen by submission+28026.3%
- Fight goes the distance+3076.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen
Prelims · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Gabriel Lorenço
60%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-230
69.7% implied · -9.7 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.