Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan
Prelims · Featherweight · UFC
Austin Bashi
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 38%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 1.2
- Takedown defense
- 64%
- Control time
- 3:45 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 65/100
Recent form
Lucas Brennan
“Skywalker”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 39%
- Sub rate
- 29%
- Decision rate
- 32%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.8
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 77%
- Control time
- 2:15 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 88/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Lucas Brennan
Confidence
63%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Lucas Brennan is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Austin Bashi's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 63%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Austin Bashi
+228
- Market implied win %
- 30.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 37%
- Return on 100 staked
- +228
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Lucas Brennan
-251
- Market implied win %
- 71.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 63%
- Return on 100 staked
- +40
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.5 pts
Edge on Lucas Brennan
- Raina's model
- 63%
- Market implied
- 71.5%
- at -251
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Lucas Brennan higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Brennan by KO/TKO+27826.5%
- Brennan by decision+22331%
- Bashi by submission+42319.1%
- Fight goes the distance-5736.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan
Prelims · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Lucas Brennan
63%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-251
71.5% implied · -8.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.