Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Main Card · Light Heavyweight · UFC
Billy Elekana
“Son of Susie”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 196 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 2.2
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 7:19 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Lucas Fernando
13-3-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 190 cm
- Reach
- 196 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 66%
- Sub rate
- 8%
- Decision rate
- 26%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.2
- Strike accuracy
- 55%
- Takedown avg
- 1.1
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 7:36 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Billy Elekana
Confidence
52%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Billy Elekana is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Lucas Fernando's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 52%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Billy Elekana
-174
- Market implied win %
- 63.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 52%
- Return on 100 staked
- +57
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Lucas Fernando
+163
- Market implied win %
- 38%
- Raina's model win %
- 48%
- Return on 100 staked
- +163
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-11.5 pts
Edge on Billy Elekana
- Raina's model
- 52%
- Market implied
- 63.5%
- at -174
- Gap (model − market)
- -11.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Billy Elekana higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Elekana by KO/TKO+14940.2%
- Elekana by decision+27826.5%
- Fernando by submission+28725.8%
- Fight goes the distance+16537.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Billy Elekana
52%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-174
63.5% implied · -11.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.