Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady
Main Event · Welterweight · UFC
Gabriel Bonfim
“Marretinha”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 185 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 18%
- Decision rate
- 51%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 45%
- Takedown avg
- 1.6
- Takedown defense
- 82%
- Control time
- 1:42 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 76/100
Recent form
Sean Brady
Record unlisted
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 43%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 2.8
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 7:18 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 77/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Gabriel Bonfim
Confidence
68%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Gabriel Bonfim is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Sean Brady's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 68%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Gabriel Bonfim
-286
- Market implied win %
- 74.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 68%
- Return on 100 staked
- +35
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Sean Brady
+258
- Market implied win %
- 27.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 32%
- Return on 100 staked
- +258
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.1 pts
Edge on Gabriel Bonfim
- Raina's model
- 68%
- Market implied
- 74.1%
- at -286
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Gabriel Bonfim higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Bonfim by KO/TKO+20133.2%
- Bonfim by decision+24928.7%
- Brady by submission+36921.3%
- Fight goes the distance-12355.2%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady
Main Event · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Gabriel Bonfim
68%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-286
74.1% implied · -6.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.