Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Main Card · Light Heavyweight · UFC
Billy Elekana
“Son of Susie”
Record unlisted
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 191 cm
- Reach
- 196 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 45%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 2.2
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 7:19 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Lucas Fernando
13-3-0
- Age
- 29
- Height
- 190 cm
- Reach
- 196 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 66%
- Sub rate
- 8%
- Decision rate
- 26%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 5.2
- Strike accuracy
- 55%
- Takedown avg
- 1.1
- Takedown defense
- 67%
- Control time
- 7:36 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Lucas Fernando
Confidence
69%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Lucas Fernando is the more complete striker here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Billy Elekana's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 69%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Billy Elekana
+264
- Market implied win %
- 27.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 31%
- Return on 100 staked
- +264
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Lucas Fernando
-293
- Market implied win %
- 74.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 69%
- Return on 100 staked
- +34
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5.6 pts
Edge on Lucas Fernando
- Raina's model
- 69%
- Market implied
- 74.6%
- at -293
- Gap (model − market)
- -5.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Lucas Fernando higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Fernando by KO/TKO+25028.6%
- Fernando by decision+28026.3%
- Elekana by submission+53715.7%
- Fight goes the distance+10848.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Main Card · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Lucas Fernando
69%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-293
74.6% implied · -5.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.