Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
Prelims · Featherweight · UFC
Keiichiro Nakamura
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 33%
- Sub rate
- 25%
- Decision rate
- 42%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 69%
- Control time
- 5:44 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Ollie Schmid
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 31%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 47%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.5
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 2.1
- Takedown defense
- 64%
- Control time
- 3:06 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 74/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Ollie Schmid
Confidence
75%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Ollie Schmid is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Keiichiro Nakamura's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 75%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Keiichiro Nakamura
+300
- Market implied win %
- 25%
- Raina's model win %
- 25%
- Return on 100 staked
- +300
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Ollie Schmid
-335
- Market implied win %
- 77%
- Raina's model win %
- 75%
- Return on 100 staked
- +30
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-2 pts
Edge on Ollie Schmid
- Raina's model
- 75%
- Market implied
- 77%
- at -335
- Gap (model − market)
- -2 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Ollie Schmid higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Schmid by KO/TKO+23130.2%
- Schmid by decision+16637.6%
- Nakamura by submission+53715.7%
- Fight goes the distance+1289.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
Prelims · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Ollie Schmid
75%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-335
77% implied · -2 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.