Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço
Prelims · Heavyweight · UFC
Official result
Thomas Petersen def. Gabriel Lorenço
TKO (punches) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Thomas Petersen
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 26%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 50%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 0:29 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 60/100
Recent form
Gabriel Lorenço
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 36%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 42%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 80%
- Control time
- 4:26 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Gabriel Lorenço
Confidence
63%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Gabriel Lorenço is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Thomas Petersen's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 63%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Thomas Petersen
+228
- Market implied win %
- 30.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 37%
- Return on 100 staked
- +228
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Gabriel Lorenço
-251
- Market implied win %
- 71.5%
- Raina's model win %
- 63%
- Return on 100 staked
- +40
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.5 pts
Edge on Gabriel Lorenço
- Raina's model
- 63%
- Market implied
- 71.5%
- at -251
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Gabriel Lorenço higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Lorenço by KO/TKO+16537.7%
- Lorenço by decision+13542.6%
- Petersen by submission+53315.8%
- Fight goes the distance+4768%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço
Prelims · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Gabriel Lorenço
63%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-251
71.5% implied · -8.5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.