Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
Main Card · Women's Strawweight · UFC
Amanda Lemos
“Amandinha”
15-7-1
- Age
- 39
- Height
- 163 cm
- Reach
- 165 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 48%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 38%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6.2
- Strike accuracy
- 53%
- Takedown avg
- 0.6
- Takedown defense
- 61%
- Control time
- 2:34 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 84/100
Recent form
Alexia Thainara
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Women's Strawweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 21%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 48%
- Takedown avg
- 1.5
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 4:46 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 74/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Alexia Thainara
Confidence
59%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Alexia Thainara is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Amanda Lemos's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 59%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Amanda Lemos
+205
- Market implied win %
- 32.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 41%
- Return on 100 staked
- +205
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Alexia Thainara
-223
- Market implied win %
- 69%
- Raina's model win %
- 59%
- Return on 100 staked
- +45
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10 pts
Edge on Alexia Thainara
- Raina's model
- 59%
- Market implied
- 69%
- at -223
- Gap (model − market)
- -10 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Alexia Thainara higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Thainara by KO/TKO+21831.4%
- Thainara by decision+18135.6%
- Lemos by submission+33922.8%
- Fight goes the distance+5664.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
Main Card · Women's Strawweight
Raina's pick
Alexia Thainara
59%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-223
69% implied · -10 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.