Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo
Co-Main · Lightweight · UFC
Official result
Carlos Diego Ferreira def. Billy Quarantillo
Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Carlos Diego Ferreira
20-7-0
- Age
- 42
- Height
- 175 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 20%
- Sub rate
- 49%
- Decision rate
- 31%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 2.9
- Strike accuracy
- 43%
- Takedown avg
- 4
- Takedown defense
- 63%
- Control time
- 5:33 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 75/100
Recent form
Billy Quarantillo
18-8-0
- Age
- 37
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 178 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 39%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.4
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 4:19 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 86/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Confidence
56%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 1
Upset potential
High
Risk level
High
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Carlos Diego Ferreira is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Billy Quarantillo's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 56%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a finish around round 1.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Carlos Diego Ferreira
-202
- Market implied win %
- 66.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 56%
- Return on 100 staked
- +50
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Billy Quarantillo
+187
- Market implied win %
- 34.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 44%
- Return on 100 staked
- +187
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-10.9 pts
Edge on Carlos Diego Ferreira
- Raina's model
- 56%
- Market implied
- 66.9%
- at -202
- Gap (model − market)
- -10.9 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Carlos Diego Ferreira higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Ferreira by KO/TKO+25028.6%
- Ferreira by decision+16038.5%
- Quarantillo by submission+28026.3%
- Fight goes the distance+2679.4%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo
Co-Main · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Carlos Diego Ferreira
56%
Method / round
Submission
Round 1
Line & edge
-202
66.9% implied · -10.9 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.