Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes
Prelims · Light Heavyweight · UFC
Official result
Diyar Nurgozhay def. Bruno Lopes
TKO (punches) · Round 1 · imported automatically after the event
Diyar Nurgozhay
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 34%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 46%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 2.7
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 4:42 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 77/100
Recent form
Bruno Lopes
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Light Heavyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 32%
- Sub rate
- 19%
- Decision rate
- 49%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.7
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2
- Takedown defense
- 79%
- Control time
- 5:24 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 75/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Diyar Nurgozhay
Confidence
68%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Diyar Nurgozhay is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Bruno Lopes's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 68%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Diyar Nurgozhay
-286
- Market implied win %
- 74.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 68%
- Return on 100 staked
- +35
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Bruno Lopes
+258
- Market implied win %
- 27.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 32%
- Return on 100 staked
- +258
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.1 pts
Edge on Diyar Nurgozhay
- Raina's model
- 68%
- Market implied
- 74.1%
- at -286
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Diyar Nurgozhay higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Nurgozhay by KO/TKO+14540.8%
- Nurgozhay by decision+18035.7%
- Lopes by submission+48017.2%
- Fight goes the distance-3425.4%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes
Prelims · Light Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Diyar Nurgozhay
68%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-286
74.1% implied · -6.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.