José Montanha vs Louie Sutherland
Prelims · Heavyweight · UFC
Official result
José Montanha def. Louie Sutherland
Submission (neck crank) · Round 1 · imported automatically after the event
José Montanha
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 37%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 37%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.8
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2.3
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 3:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 56/100
Recent form
Louie Sutherland
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 27%
- Decision rate
- 33%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.7
- Strike accuracy
- 46%
- Takedown avg
- 2.8
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 2:52 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
José Montanha
Confidence
64%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
José Montanha is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Louie Sutherland's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 64%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
José Montanha
-258
- Market implied win %
- 72.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 64%
- Return on 100 staked
- +39
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Louie Sutherland
+234
- Market implied win %
- 29.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 36%
- Return on 100 staked
- +234
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.1 pts
Edge on José Montanha
- Raina's model
- 64%
- Market implied
- 72.1%
- at -258
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates José Montanha higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Montanha by KO/TKO+19833.6%
- Montanha by decision+17935.8%
- Sutherland by submission+41919.3%
- Fight goes the distance+9551.3%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
José Montanha vs Louie Sutherland
Prelims · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
José Montanha
64%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-258
72.1% implied · -8.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.