Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda
Prelims · Lightweight · UFC
Official result
Manoel Sousa def. Richie Miranda
Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Manoel Sousa
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 30%
- Sub rate
- 29%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.9
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.2
- Takedown defense
- 81%
- Control time
- 5:34 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Richie Miranda
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 33%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.9
- Strike accuracy
- 50%
- Takedown avg
- 3
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 4:35 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 84/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Manoel Sousa
Confidence
70%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Manoel Sousa is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Richie Miranda's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 70%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Manoel Sousa
-300
- Market implied win %
- 75%
- Raina's model win %
- 70%
- Return on 100 staked
- +33
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Richie Miranda
+270
- Market implied win %
- 27%
- Raina's model win %
- 30%
- Return on 100 staked
- +270
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-5 pts
Edge on Manoel Sousa
- Raina's model
- 70%
- Market implied
- 75%
- at -300
- Gap (model − market)
- -5 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Manoel Sousa higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Sousa by KO/TKO+28026.3%
- Sousa by decision+20333%
- Miranda by submission+25728%
- Fight goes the distance+2977.5%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda
Prelims · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Manoel Sousa
70%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-300
75% implied · -5 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.