Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld
Main Event · Lightweight · UFC
Mateusz Gamrot
“Gamer”
26-5-0
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 43%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.6
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 5:36 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Quillan Salkilld
13-1-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 191 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 52%
- Decision rate
- 30%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 43%
- Takedown avg
- 3.2
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 0:41 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Mateusz Gamrot
Confidence
78%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (5 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Mateusz Gamrot is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Quillan Salkilld's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 78%.
Reach, stance (Southpaw vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Mateusz Gamrot
-356
- Market implied win %
- 78.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 78%
- Return on 100 staked
- +28
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Quillan Salkilld
+318
- Market implied win %
- 23.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 22%
- Return on 100 staked
- +318
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-0.1 pts
Edge on Mateusz Gamrot
- Raina's model
- 78%
- Market implied
- 78.1%
- at -356
- Gap (model − market)
- -0.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Mateusz Gamrot higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Gamrot by KO/TKO+14241.3%
- Gamrot by decision+22430.9%
- Salkilld by submission+35322.1%
- Fight goes the distance-4330.1%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Mateusz Gamrot
78%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (5 rounds)
Line & edge
-356
78.1% implied · -0.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.