Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz Gamrot
Main Event · Lightweight · UFC
Official result
Quillan Salkilld def. Mateusz Gamrot
Submission (rear-naked choke) · Round 1 · imported automatically after the event
Quillan Salkilld
13-1-0
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 183 cm
- Reach
- 191 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 18%
- Sub rate
- 52%
- Decision rate
- 30%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 43%
- Takedown avg
- 3.2
- Takedown defense
- 75%
- Control time
- 0:41 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 81/100
Recent form
Mateusz Gamrot
“Gamer”
26-5-0
- Age
- 35
- Height
- 178 cm
- Reach
- 180 cm
- Stance
- Southpaw
- Weight class
- Lightweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 35%
- Sub rate
- 22%
- Decision rate
- 43%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.6
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.7
- Takedown defense
- 76%
- Control time
- 5:36 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Quillan Salkilld
Confidence
68%
Predicted method
Submission
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Quillan Salkilld is the more complete grappler here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 5 rounds.
Mateusz Gamrot's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 68%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Southpaw) and pace history all point to a finish around round 3.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Quillan Salkilld
-286
- Market implied win %
- 74.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 68%
- Return on 100 staked
- +35
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Mateusz Gamrot
+258
- Market implied win %
- 27.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 32%
- Return on 100 staked
- +258
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-6.1 pts
Edge on Quillan Salkilld
- Raina's model
- 68%
- Market implied
- 74.1%
- at -286
- Gap (model − market)
- -6.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Quillan Salkilld higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Salkilld by KO/TKO+26027.8%
- Salkilld by decision+11546.5%
- Gamrot by submission+46317.8%
- Fight goes the distance-8144.8%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz Gamrot
Main Event · Lightweight
Raina's pick
Quillan Salkilld
68%
Method / round
Submission
Round 3
Line & edge
-286
74.1% implied · -6.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.