Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat
Prelims · Heavyweight · UFC
Official result
Steven Asplund def. Guilherme Pat
Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Steven Asplund
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 39%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 41%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 51%
- Takedown avg
- 2.5
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 6:08 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 62/100
Recent form
Guilherme Pat
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Heavyweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 29%
- Sub rate
- 24%
- Decision rate
- 47%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.6
- Strike accuracy
- 52%
- Takedown avg
- 1.3
- Takedown defense
- 66%
- Control time
- 5:11 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 88/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Steven Asplund
Confidence
72%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Steven Asplund is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Guilherme Pat's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 72%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Steven Asplund
-314
- Market implied win %
- 75.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 72%
- Return on 100 staked
- +32
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Guilherme Pat
+282
- Market implied win %
- 26.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 28%
- Return on 100 staked
- +282
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.8 pts
Edge on Steven Asplund
- Raina's model
- 72%
- Market implied
- 75.8%
- at -314
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.8 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Steven Asplund higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Asplund by KO/TKO+22031.3%
- Asplund by decision+12843.9%
- Pat by submission+39820.1%
- Fight goes the distance-10751.7%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat
Prelims · Heavyweight
Raina's pick
Steven Asplund
72%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-314
75.8% implied · -3.8 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.