Márcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse
Main Card · Featherweight · UFC
Márcio Barbosa
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- 4-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 26%
- Sub rate
- 28%
- Decision rate
- 46%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.8
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 1.6
- Takedown defense
- 68%
- Control time
- 7:50 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 73/100
Recent form
Ryan Kuse
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Featherweight
- Streak
- Rebounding from a loss
- KO rate
- 40%
- Sub rate
- 28%
- Decision rate
- 32%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 2.3
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 6:37 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Ryan Kuse
Confidence
73%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Ryan Kuse is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Márcio Barbosa's clearest path is forcing grappling exchanges and stealing rounds from top position - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 73%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Márcio Barbosa
+288
- Market implied win %
- 25.8%
- Raina's model win %
- 27%
- Return on 100 staked
- +288
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Ryan Kuse
-321
- Market implied win %
- 76.2%
- Raina's model win %
- 73%
- Return on 100 staked
- +31
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
-3.2 pts
Edge on Ryan Kuse
- Raina's model
- 73%
- Market implied
- 76.2%
- at -321
- Gap (model − market)
- -3.2 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Ryan Kuse higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Kuse by KO/TKO+31224.3%
- Kuse by decision+15040%
- Barbosa by submission+34122.7%
- Fight goes the distance+4768%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Sunday, August 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Márcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse
Main Card · Featherweight
Raina's pick
Ryan Kuse
73%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-321
76.2% implied · -3.2 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Matchups and records checked by the desk against the promotion's official card.