Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
Main Card · Welterweight · UFC
Official result
Daniil Donchenko def. Punahele Soriano
Decision (unanimous) (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Daniil Donchenko
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 3-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 67%
- Sub rate
- 14%
- Decision rate
- 19%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 6
- Strike accuracy
- 53%
- Takedown avg
- 0.3
- Takedown defense
- 63%
- Control time
- 4:44 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 87/100
Recent form
Punahele Soriano
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Welterweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 28%
- Sub rate
- 20%
- Decision rate
- 52%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4
- Strike accuracy
- 47%
- Takedown avg
- 1.9
- Takedown defense
- 74%
- Control time
- 3:13 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 64/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Punahele Soriano
Confidence
79%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Distance (3 rounds)
Upset potential
Low
Risk level
Low
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Punahele Soriano is the more complete all-rounder here, and the model gives that skill set the deciding weight over 3 rounds.
Daniil Donchenko's clearest path is landing early power before the fight settles - a live route, which is why confidence sits at 79%.
Reach, stance (Orthodox vs Orthodox) and pace history all point to a fight that goes to the officials.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Daniil Donchenko
+324
- Market implied win %
- 23.6%
- Raina's model win %
- 21%
- Return on 100 staked
- +324
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Punahele Soriano
-363
- Market implied win %
- 78.4%
- Raina's model win %
- 79%
- Return on 100 staked
- +28
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
In line with market
+0.6 pts
Edge on Punahele Soriano
- Raina's model
- 79%
- Market implied
- 78.4%
- at -363
- Gap (model − market)
- +0.6 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Punahele Soriano higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 2.5 rounds
Over
+110
47.6% implied
Under
-135
57.4% implied
Method & distance markets
- Soriano by KO/TKO+28326.1%
- Soriano by decision+13941.8%
- Donchenko by submission+52815.9%
- Fight goes the distance-4932.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
Share this pick
UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
Main Card · Welterweight
Raina's pick
Punahele Soriano
79%
Method / round
Decision
Distance (3 rounds)
Line & edge
-363
78.4% implied · +0.6 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.