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Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

Prelims · Women's Strawweight · UFC

Official result

Delphine Benouaich def. Sofia Montenegro

Submission (rear-naked choke) · Round 2 · imported automatically after the event

Red cornerFrance

Delphine Benouaich

Record unlisted

Age
30
Height
180 cm
Reach
183 cm
Stance
Orthodox
Weight class
Women's Strawweight
Streak
4-fight win streak
KO rate
35%
Sub rate
28%
Decision rate
37%
Sig. strikes/min
4.5
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedown avg
1.7
Takedown defense
69%
Control time
5:37 / fight
Opponent quality
85/100

Recent form

WWWWL

Recent fight history

    Full profile →
    Blue cornerMexico

    Sofia Montenegro

    Record unlisted

    Age
    30
    Height
    180 cm
    Reach
    183 cm
    Stance
    Orthodox
    Weight class
    Women's Strawweight
    Streak
    5-fight win streak
    KO rate
    55%
    Sub rate
    13%
    Decision rate
    32%
    Sig. strikes/min
    4.7
    Strike accuracy
    48%
    Takedown avg
    0.7
    Takedown defense
    63%
    Control time
    6:56 / fight
    Opponent quality
    67/100

    Recent form

    WWWWW

    Recent fight history

      Full profile →

      Raina's AI Analysis

      AI-generated
      On record since 2026-08-06

      Predicted winner

      Delphine Benouaich

      Confidence

      66%

      Predicted method

      Submission

      Predicted round

      Round 2

      Upset potential

      Moderate

      Risk level

      Medium

      Advantage model

      StrikingSofia Montenegro +11
      GrapplingDelphine Benouaich +16
      WrestlingDelphine Benouaich +21
      CardioDelphine Benouaich +10
      ExperienceSofia Montenegro +16
      Fight IQDelphine Benouaich +16

      Why Raina made this pick

      Benouaich is a TUF semifinalist with a complete game: she can win the striking exchanges at range and is the more proven finisher once the fight hits the mat.

      Montenegro will stand and trade, which plays directly into Benouaich's counter game and her ability to change levels off hurt opponents.

      Confidence is 66% because both debutants carry unknowns, but Benouaich's pre-UFC competition level is the strongest signal on the tape.

      Confidence breakdown

      How Raina's 66% read is built. Each bar is how strongly a factor pushed the call, not a win probability - none of it guarantees an outcome. Vote on each factor after the result and the tally builds a record of which reads hold up.

      Grappling threat
      leans Delphine Benouaich · 74/100
      Benouaich climbs to dominant positions quickly and hunts the choke once on top.
      No votes yet
      Striking volume
      leans Delphine Benouaich · 61/100
      She connects at a high rate in open exchanges and punishes opponents who slug with her.
      No votes yet
      Debut unknowns
      leans Sofia Montenegro · 48/100
      Montenegro's toughness in a firefight is real, and first UFC walks change fighters.
      No votes yet

      AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.

      Lines & market comparison

      Informational
      Odds updated Last updated

      Red corner

      Delphine Benouaich

      -272

      Market implied win %
      73.1%
      Raina's model win %
      66%
      Return on 100 staked
      +37

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Blue corner

      Sofia Montenegro

      +246

      Market implied win %
      28.9%
      Raina's model win %
      34%
      Return on 100 staked
      +246

      Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.

      Model below market

      -7.1 pts

      Edge on Delphine Benouaich

      0%50%100%
      Raina's model
      66%
      Market implied
      73.1%
      at -272
      Gap (model − market)
      -7.1 pts

      A positive gap means Raina rates Delphine Benouaich higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.

      rounds total

      Over/Under 2.5 rounds

      Over

      +110

      47.6% implied

      Under

      -135

      57.4% implied

      Method & distance markets

      • Benouaich by KO/TKO+15139.8%
      • Benouaich by decision+20333%
      • Montenegro by submission+55015.4%
      • Fight goes the distance+991.7%

      Odds updated Updated

      Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).

      Share this pick

      On record

      UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

      Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC

      Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro

      Prelims · Women's Strawweight

      Raina's pick

      Delphine Benouaich

      66%

      Method / round

      Submission

      Round 2

      Line & edge

      -272

      73.1% implied · -7.1 pts

      Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.

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