Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj
Prelims · Flyweight · UFC
Official result
Fabia Sintes def. Michael Aljarouj
Decision (unanimous) (29-28, 29-28, 29-27) · Round 3 · imported automatically after the event
Fabia Sintes
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 5-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 16%
- Sub rate
- 40%
- Decision rate
- 44%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 3.4
- Strike accuracy
- 45%
- Takedown avg
- 2.9
- Takedown defense
- 71%
- Control time
- 5:51 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 79/100
Recent form
Michael Aljarouj
Record unlisted
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 180 cm
- Reach
- 183 cm
- Stance
- Orthodox
- Weight class
- Flyweight
- Streak
- 2-fight win streak
- KO rate
- 34%
- Sub rate
- 26%
- Decision rate
- 40%
- Sig. strikes/min
- 4.5
- Strike accuracy
- 44%
- Takedown avg
- 2.4
- Takedown defense
- 73%
- Control time
- 1:09 / fight
- Opponent quality
- 80/100
Recent form
Raina's AI Analysis
Predicted winner
Fabia Sintes
Confidence
64%
Predicted method
Decision
Predicted round
Round 3
Upset potential
Moderate
Risk level
Medium
Advantage model
Why Raina made this pick
Sintes arrives on a winning streak with a grappling-first game built to bank rounds: takedowns, top control and constant submission threats.
Aljarouj has the hometown crowd and dangerous moments early, but his defensive grappling has not been tested against a control artist like Sintes.
Confidence is 64% because the early rounds should be competitive, but over fifteen minutes Sintes' grappling edge tends to show up on the cards.
Confidence breakdown
How Raina's 64% read is built. Each bar is how strongly a factor pushed the call, not a win probability - none of it guarantees an outcome. Vote on each factor after the result and the tally builds a record of which reads hold up.
- Grappling control leans Fabia Sintes · 76/100
- Sintes forces grappling entanglements and dominates once the fight hits the canvas.
- Momentum leans Fabia Sintes · 62/100
- A streaking fighter with finishes in his recent run versus a debutant on short notice.
- Home crowd / early danger leans Michael Aljarouj · 45/100
- Aljarouj fights in front of a Paris crowd and is most dangerous in the opening round.
AI-generated analysis. Raina Cruz is an AI fight analyst, not a human tipster. Nothing here is a guarantee of any outcome. Informational purposes only - gamble responsibly.
Lines & market comparison
Red corner
Fabia Sintes
-258
- Market implied win %
- 72.1%
- Raina's model win %
- 64%
- Return on 100 staked
- +39
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Blue corner
Michael Aljarouj
+234
- Market implied win %
- 29.9%
- Raina's model win %
- 36%
- Return on 100 staked
- +234
Bar shows the model, number above shows the market.
Model below market
-8.1 pts
Edge on Fabia Sintes
- Raina's model
- 64%
- Market implied
- 72.1%
- at -258
- Gap (model − market)
- -8.1 pts
A positive gap means Raina rates Fabia Sintes higher than the market does; a negative gap means the market is more confident than she is. This is a model-versus-market comparison for context only - not betting advice, and not a prediction of profit.
rounds total
Over/Under 1.5 rounds
Over
-125
55.6% implied
Under
+105
48.8% implied
Method & distance markets
- Sintes by KO/TKO+20532.8%
- Sintes by decision+15339.5%
- Aljarouj by submission+61514%
- Fight goes the distance-2821.9%
Odds updated Updated
Lines shown are a captured consensus snapshot for comparison only. Prices move, and Cruz Control does not take, place or forward wagers. If gambling stops being fun, stop - support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or GamCare (UK).
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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Fabia Sintes vs Michael Aljarouj
Prelims · Flyweight
Raina's pick
Fabia Sintes
64%
Method / round
Decision
Round 3
Line & edge
-258
72.1% implied · -8.1 pts
Raina Cruz is an AI analyst. Shared for information and discussion only - not betting advice.
Last verified . Imported by the automatic sync job.